Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Saturday 18 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 37133 (+2553) 709200 (+32144) 59979 (+2708) 612088 (+26883)
Italy 22745 (+575) 172434 (+3493) 42727 (+2563) 106962 (+355)
Spain 20002 (+687) 190839 (+5891) 74797 (+0) 96040 (+5204)
France 18681 (+761) 147969 (-17058) 34420 (+1608) 94868 (-19427)
United Kingdom 14576 (+847) 108692 (+5599) 0 (+0) 94116 (+4752)
Belgium 5163 (+306) 36138 (+1329) 7961 (+399) 23014 (+624)
Iran 4958 (+89) 79494 (+1499) 54064 (+1835) 20472 (-425)
China 4632 (+1290) 82692 (+351) 77944 (+52) 116 (-991)
Germany 4352 (+300) 141397 (+3699) 83114 (+6114) 53931 (-2715)
Netherlands 3459 (+144) 30449 (+1235) 250 (+0) 26740 (+1091)
Brazil 2141 (+194) 33682 (+2999) 14026 (+0) 17515 (+2805)
Turkey 1769 (+126) 78546 (+4353) 8631 (+1542) 68146 (+2685)
Sweden 1400 (+67) 13216 (+676) 550 (+0) 11266 (+609)
Switzerland 1327 (+46) 27078 (+346) 16400 (+500) 9351 (-200)
Canada 1310 (+119) 31642 (+1713) 10328 (+654) 20004 (+940)
Portugal 657 (+28) 19022 (+181) 519 (+26) 17846 (+127)
Ireland 530 (+44) 13980 (+709) 77 (+0) 13373 (+665)
Indonesia 520 (+24) 5923 (+407) 607 (+59) 4796 (+324)
Mexico 486 (+37) 6297 (+450) 2125 (+0) 3686 (+413)
India 486 (+38) 14352 (+922) 2041 (+273) 11825 (+611)
Austria 431 (+21) 14595 (+119) 9704 (+718) 4460 (-620)
Ecuador 421 (+18) 8450 (+225) 838 (+0) 7191 (+207)
Romania 411 (+19) 8067 (+360) 1508 (+151) 6148 (+190)
Philippines 387 (+25) 5878 (+218) 487 (+52) 5004 (+141)
Algeria 364 (+16) 2418 (+150) 846 (+63) 1208 (+71)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 149492 (+7424) 2165344 (+67780) 492486 (+23979)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 149916 ( +5277) 2165163 ( +50130) 506531 ( +23700)
Sun 19 April 2020 154806 ( +4890) 2210597 ( +45434) 528936 ( +22406)
Mon 20 April 2020 159304 ( +4498) 2251568 ( +40971) 549929 ( +20993)
Tue 21 April 2020 163414 ( +4110) 2288345 ( +36777) 569432 ( +19503)
Wed 22 April 2020 167147 ( +3733) 2321224 ( +32878) 587410 ( +17978)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 4632 (+1290) 82692 (+351) 77944 (+52)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 3322 ( +0) 81272 ( +0) 76813 ( +14)
Sun 19 April 2020 3322 ( +0) 81272 ( +0) 76825 ( +12)
Mon 20 April 2020 3322 ( +0) 81272 ( +0) 76835 ( +11)
Tue 21 April 2020 3322 ( +0) 81272 ( +0) 76844 ( +9)
Wed 22 April 2020 3322 ( +0) 81272 ( +0) 76852 ( +8)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 20002 (+687) 190839 (+5891) 74797 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 19209 ( +183) 181983 ( +1406) 75454 ( +1399)
Sun 19 April 2020 19363 ( +154) 183177 ( +1194) 76640 ( +1186)
Mon 20 April 2020 19492 ( +129) 184189 ( +1012) 77640 ( +1000)
Tue 21 April 2020 19601 ( +108) 185044 ( +856) 78479 ( +839)
Wed 22 April 2020 19691 ( +90) 185767 ( +723) 79181 ( +702)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 22745 (+575) 172434 (+3493) 42727 (+2563)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 21915 ( +202) 165935 ( +1214) 42661 ( +1281)
Sun 19 April 2020 22092 ( +177) 167006 ( +1071) 43867 ( +1206)
Mon 20 April 2020 22246 ( +154) 167950 ( +944) 44997 ( +1130)
Tue 21 April 2020 22381 ( +135) 168780 ( +830) 46050 ( +1054)
Wed 22 April 2020 22498 ( +117) 169510 ( +729) 47028 ( +978)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 14576 (+847) 108692 (+5599) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 14729 ( +494) 110507 ( +3538) 159 ( +4)
Sun 19 April 2020 15155 ( +425) 113693 ( +3186) 163 ( +4)
Mon 20 April 2020 15517 ( +363) 116541 ( +2847) 168 ( +5)
Tue 21 April 2020 15824 ( +306) 119067 ( +2527) 172 ( +5)
Wed 22 April 2020 16081 ( +257) 121296 ( +2228) 177 ( +5)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 37133 (+2553) 709200 (+32144) 59979 (+2708)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 38405 ( +2616) 702248 ( +16421) 64826 ( +5682)
Sun 19 April 2020 40928 ( +2523) 716608 ( +14360) 70677 ( +5851)
Mon 20 April 2020 43328 ( +2400) 729086 ( +12477) 76638 ( +5961)
Tue 21 April 2020 45582 ( +2254) 739867 ( +10781) 82644 ( +6006)
Wed 22 April 2020 47673 ( +2091) 749138 ( +9271) 88630 ( +5986)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 18681 (+761) 147969 (-17058) 34420 (+1608)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 18508 ( +427) 158645 ( +2785) 42301 ( +3461)
Sun 19 April 2020 18873 ( +365) 161073 ( +2428) 46071 ( +3770)
Mon 20 April 2020 19183 ( +310) 163179 ( +2106) 50177 ( +4106)
Tue 21 April 2020 19445 ( +261) 164999 ( +1820) 54649 ( +4472)
Wed 22 April 2020 19664 ( +219) 166566 ( +1567) 59519 ( +4870)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 4352 (+300) 141397 (+3699) 83114 (+6114)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 4288 ( +142) 138046 ( +1083) 82444 ( +2555)
Sun 19 April 2020 4413 ( +126) 138969 ( +923) 84670 ( +2227)
Mon 20 April 2020 4523 ( +110) 139754 ( +785) 86594 ( +1923)
Tue 21 April 2020 4619 ( +96) 140421 ( +667) 88241 ( +1648)
Wed 22 April 2020 4701 ( +82) 140986 ( +565) 89644 ( +1403)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 3459 (+144) 30449 (+1235) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 3340 ( +60) 29881 ( +541) 250 ( +0)
Sun 19 April 2020 3391 ( +51) 30365 ( +484) 250 ( +0)
Mon 20 April 2020 3435 ( +44) 30797 ( +432) 250 ( +0)
Tue 21 April 2020 3472 ( +37) 31180 ( +383) 250 ( +0)
Wed 22 April 2020 3503 ( +31) 31519 ( +339) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 5163 (+306) 36138 (+1329) 7961 (+399)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 5323 ( +236) 35534 ( +716) 7871 ( +172)
Sun 19 April 2020 5534 ( +210) 36168 ( +635) 8018 ( +147)
Mon 20 April 2020 5719 ( +185) 36728 ( +560) 8143 ( +125)
Tue 21 April 2020 5880 ( +161) 37219 ( +491) 8248 ( +105)
Wed 22 April 2020 6019 ( +139) 37649 ( +430) 8337 ( +89)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 1400 (+67) 13216 (+676) 550 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 1401 ( +61) 13395 ( +419) 532 ( +21)
Sun 19 April 2020 1456 ( +55) 13790 ( +395) 551 ( +18)
Mon 20 April 2020 1504 ( +49) 14161 ( +371) 567 ( +16)
Tue 21 April 2020 1548 ( +43) 14507 ( +346) 581 ( +14)
Wed 22 April 2020 1585 ( +38) 14829 ( +321) 593 ( +12)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 332 (+18) 8379 (+461) 866 (+92)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 340 ( +15) 8339 ( +210) 941 ( +84)
Sun 19 April 2020 353 ( +13) 8527 ( +187) 1022 ( +80)
Mon 20 April 2020 364 ( +11) 8692 ( +166) 1096 ( +74)
Tue 21 April 2020 373 ( +10) 8838 ( +146) 1163 ( +68)
Wed 22 April 2020 382 ( +8) 8966 ( +128) 1224 ( +60)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 1327 (+46) 27078 (+346) 16400 (+500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 1308 ( +22) 26401 ( +122) 16066 ( +278)
Sun 19 April 2020 1327 ( +19) 26504 ( +103) 16291 ( +225)
Mon 20 April 2020 1343 ( +16) 26590 ( +87) 16471 ( +180)
Tue 21 April 2020 1357 ( +14) 26664 ( +73) 16615 ( +144)
Wed 22 April 2020 1369 ( +12) 26725 ( +62) 16729 ( +114)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 17 April 2020 4958 (+89) 79494 (+1499) 54064 (+1835)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 18 April 2020 4842 ( +47) 80553 ( +1146) 64161 ( +4920)
Sun 19 April 2020 4884 ( +42) 81602 ( +1049) 69490 ( +5329)
Mon 20 April 2020 4922 ( +38) 82560 ( +959) 75262 ( +5772)
Tue 21 April 2020 4956 ( +34) 83434 ( +874) 81513 ( +6251)
Wed 22 April 2020 4986 ( +30) 84228 ( +794) 88284 ( +6770)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.